ATLANTA – Yesterday, NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis showing a Democratic wave building in Georgia ahead of the November election as Georgians reject Republicans’ dangerous and extreme anti-choice agenda.
The analysis was conducted by TargetSmart and shows Democratic enthusiasm for defeating Kemp’s dangerous, far-right agenda as women, voters of color and Democrats are requesting mail-in ballots at a faster pace than Republicans and traditionally conservative leaning groups. According to TargetSmart’s analysis, more than 62% of requests for mail-in ballots are from Democratic voters — 14% points higher compared to this time in 2020.
Last month, in a warning sign for extremist Republican politicians like Brian Kemp, voters in traditionally conservative Kansas overwhelmingly rejected an anti-choice amendment to their state constitution 59%-41%. Recent polling from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows that Kemp’s extreme anti-abortion law is wildly unpopular with Georgia voters — with Georgia voters opposing the overturning of Roe 39%-54%, Kemp’s six week ban 36%-54%, and a total ban on abortion 21%-72%.
Additionally, TargetSmart recently released a poll showing the race for governor is statistically tied as Abrams continues to make gains with voters of all backgrounds while Kemp loses support across the board.
According to data provided TargetSmart, mail ballot requests to date show that:
- More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
- Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests to date compared to 26% at this time in 2018 and 32% at this time in 2020. Voters of color overall make up 43% of requests, compared to just 31% of requests at this time in 2018.
- Requests from Black women roughly equal requests of white men (1:1.01). At this point in 2020, white men outnumbered Black women by a factor of 1.37.
- More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots thus far, four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.
- Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020 when voters modeled as Democrats made up roughly 48% of requests.
The high number of early mail ballot requests in Georgia – triple the number at this point in 2018 – is particularly notable given voter suppression measures like SB 202, signed by Kemp, which made it more difficult to vote by mail. This Georgia ballot request data echoes recent election results in Kansas, in which voters overwhelmingly rejected an anti-choice constitutional amendment that would have paved the path for a total ban on abortion in the state. Meanwhile, poll after poll has confirmed that abortion is poised to be a key vote driver in elections in red, blue, and purple states.
In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—ending the constitutional right to abortion and opening the door for extremist state lawmakers to put total bans on abortion in place. This decision is already having a devastating impact throughout the country as 14 states, including Georgia, have begun enforcing extreme or total bans on abortion. The people hurt most by these bans and restrictions are those who already face barriers to accessing abortion care—including women; Black, Indigenous, and other people of color; those working to make ends meet; the LGBTQ+ community; immigrants; young people; those living in rural communities; and people with disabilities.
Read NARAL’s full coverage of the analysis here.